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The Painful Truth: The RAM Crisis Is Only Just the Beginning
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gist
Exceleram VP Product Steffen Eisenstein argues the DRAM shortage is still early: AI demand emptied Samsung and SK Hynix inventories, Micron exited consumer RAM/SSD in December 2025, and module makers now go weeks without chip offers. Price spikes began in late 2025, demand briefly collapsed, then cautious buying returned—but supply reliability, not just sticker shock, now bottlenecks consumer hardware. He frames the crisis as structural and unfinished.
ideas
- Shortage precedes the label. Exceleram saw extreme DRAM price jumps and inventory wipeouts in Q4 2025 before analysts named a “memory crisis” in 2026.
- AI empties consumer supply. Samsung and SK Hynix inventories tighten under AI demand; Micron’s full exit from consumer RAM and SSDs concentrates pressure on remaining module makers.
- Price is not the only failure mode. Weeks without chip offers and unreliable supply replace “another all-time high” as the binding constraint.
- Demand adapts but margins shrink. Buyers accept higher RAM prices, yet lower volume and tougher competition keep real margins thinner than spot prices imply.
- Hardware roadmaps stall. Eisenstein ties scarce DRAM to slowed consumer hardware development and long-running gamer frustration with NVIDIA priorities.
quotes
“We are not even close to the peak of the memory shortage.”
“It has never been this difficult to secure DRAM.”
“there are simply no reliable supply options available.”
“The RAM crisis is far from over. It may have only just begun.”