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Stubborn opinions on AGI

by Slava AkhmechetXpublished

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Slava Akhmechet @spakhm

My stubborn and completely uninformed opinions on AGI:

  • when AGI finally arrives it will be blindingly obvious and there will be no debate whether it’s here
  • this is in fact a good proxy test: so long as reasonable people earnestly disagree, it is not here. This test is circular, unsatisfactory, yet useful
  • we will have a precise definition of what AGI is when the proxy test is passed. The reference implementation will inform the definition
  • we have not passed the Turing test. People were tricked for a while the way they were with Eliza, but that decays fast. Not only can you tell you’re chatting with a model, you can often tell which model it is (of course the level of sophistication is incomparable)
  • this says nothing about the timelines. Labs may have AGI tech internally already, or it may take another few years of doubling, or we may be far away, I don't know
  • none of this diminishes the risk or utility of what's coming