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From Energy to Metals: Why to Still Diversify Into Commodities
Hraness wrote this summary from a saved copy of the source. Quotations are taken word for word from the source.
gist
Goldman Sachs (Samantha Dart et al., 28 Jun 2026) says portfolios should still diversify into commodities, with copper among the strongest metal cases. After the Hormuz energy shock, structural demand from grids, EVs, renewables, defense, and AI supports power and metals more than oil and gas. Grid and power infrastructure may drive over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030; GS lifts end-2026 / average-2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735 / $13,800 and sees $15,000/t needed by 2035.
ideas
- Commodities hedge equities and bonds under several regimes. Supply shocks, structural demand where supply cannot catch up, and flights to real assets each support commodity exposure in strategic portfolios.
- The Iran conflict reinforces metals more than oil and gas. EV adoption, renewables, grid spend, defense, and the AI race lift demand for power, copper, lithium, and aluminum.
- Copper demand is becoming strategic, not only cyclical. Grid and power infrastructure may drive over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 versus 2025, alongside defense, EVs, renewables, and data centers.
- Mine supply responds slowly while policy tightens balances. Deeper mines, lower grades, and US tariff anticipation pulled copper tonnes into the US and left the ex-US market in deficit.
- GS raised near-term copper forecasts and still sees higher prices later. End-2026 / average-2027 LME copper forecasts move to $13,735 / $13,800, with $15,000/t seen as needed by 2035 to balance the market.
quotes
“these themes are highly supportive of power, copper, lithium and aluminum demand.”
“Long-term structural support for copper prices, with a near-term policy boost.”
“grid and power infrastructure likely driving over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 (vs. 2025)”
“our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800”