Everything is about to “go dark”

gist

Matthew Green argues that AI-assisted vulnerability hunting could remove many exploitable bugs from well-maintained software within a few years. Intelligence and law-enforcement agencies currently bridge strong encryption by buying targeted exploits; a shrinking supply would make them “go dark” in a more literal sense. Green expects pressure for intentional access mechanisms to return, creating backdoors that foreign adversaries could also find and exploit.

ideas

• Commercial exploits deferred the encryption fight. Phone-unlocking and remote-hacking vendors gave agencies access without requiring manufacturers to build exceptional access.
• AI may shift the bug-hunting advantage toward defense. Automated scanning can find and patch old vulnerabilities throughout the development pipeline.
• A smaller exploit supply changes government demand. Agencies that lose targeted hacking capability may renew efforts to mandate intentional access paths.
• Domestic backdoors create domestic exposure. An access mechanism demanded by one government can become a target for foreign adversaries and reduce trust in its software exports.