sources
the catalog — every source behind every claim, dated and typed.
the catalog
every claim on this site carries source ids that resolve here. type marks the evidence role; dates keep the precision the source gave.
- 2026-04-12openai stops self-reporting (feb 2026)agentmarketcap.aiopenai stops self-reporting (feb 2026); verified→pro 80.9%→45.9%
- 2025claude code: preview 2025-02-24, ga 2025-05-22aicost.toolsclaude code: preview 2025-02-24, ga 2025-05-22
- 2024-04cherry-picking (road damage search) and hype-tactics analysisartificialintelligencemadesimple.comcherry-picking ("road damage" search) and hype-tactics analysis
- 2025-08-06reversal-from-messaging frameainews.comreversal-from-messaging frame
- 2025-03-14amodei cfr prediction (spoken 2025-03-10)business insideramodei cfr prediction (spoken 2025-03-10)
- 2025-01-08month-long eval: 3 successes/14 failures/3 inconclusive of 20answer.aimonth-long eval: 3 successes/14 failures/3 inconclusive of 20
- 2026-09leaderboard-convergence auditarxiv.orgleaderboard-convergence audit; scaffold swings to ~30 pts
- 2024-03-13bi launch coverage, job-loss framingbusiness insiderbi launch coverage, job-loss framing
- 2025-07wang recounts frantic weekendbusiness insiderwang recounts frantic weekend; options considered
- 2024-03ceo 2010 mathcounts clip viralitybusiness insiderceo's 2010 mathcounts clip virality
- 2026-05-27series d corroborationbloombergseries d corroboration
- 2025-07-11openai $3b deal collapsesbloombergopenai $3b deal collapses; google $2.4b talent+license
- 2026-08-17ramp data: cursor share 41%→26%business-news-today.comramp data: cursor share 41%→26%; anthropic ~half of category
- 2024-03-14launch explainerbusiness-standard.comlaunch explainer; embeds launch tweet
- 2023-01matt welsh: dinosaurs waiting for the meteorcacm.acm.orgmatt welsh: "dinosaurs waiting for the meteor"
- 2024-03early skepticismccn.comearly skepticism; reddit "scam" speculation noted
- 2025-09-08post-windsurf valuation framecnbcpost-windsurf valuation frame
- 2025-07-11argenti: hundreds… might go into the thousandscnbcargenti: "hundreds… might go into the thousands"; supervised deployment
- 2025-07-11exclusivity lapse detailcnbcexclusivity lapse detail; april $3b talks context
- 2026-06-04estimator methodology companion postcognition.comestimator methodology companion post
- 2026-06-02devin desktop (index listing)cognition.comdevin desktop (index listing)
- 2026-04-15devin integration into windsurf ships (index listing)cognition.comdevin integration into windsurf ships (index listing)
- 2026-02-24devin 2.2cognition.comdevin 2.2 (index listing)
- 2026-02-25government offering (index listing)cognition.comgovernment offering (index listing)
- 2026-06-04ai productivity guaranteecognition.comai productivity guarantee; credits up to $10m; engineer-hour estimator
- 2026-05-27$1b+ at $26bcognition.com$1b+ at $26b; $492m run-rate; customers; "89% of code committed by our engineers is committed by devin"; "independent agent lab"
- 2025-10-29frontier-size modelcognition.comfrontier-size model; 950 tok/s via cerebras; "stopped reporting swe-bench numbers in 2024"
- 2026-03-01swe-1.6 previewcognition.comswe-1.6 preview + research update (index listing)
- 2025-07-14definitive agreementcognition.comdefinitive agreement; $82m arr; 350+ enterprise customers; 100% participation/vesting
- 2024-04-25founded nov 2023 by wu, yan, haocoingape.comfounded nov 2023 by wu, yan, hao
- 2025-07-14microsoft ip-access tension detailcomputerworld.commicrosoft ip-access tension detail
- 2021-06-29your ai pair programmer — assistive-era framinggithub.blog"your ai pair programmer" — assistive-era framing
- 2024-126m-loc etl migrationdevin.ai6m-loc etl migration; 12x eng-hours; 20x cost; 1.5yr→~2mo (vendor-published)
- 2025-04-03devin 2.0cognition.comdevin 2.0: agent-native ide; $20 plan; search/wiki
- 2024-03reaction spectrum: cynicism/fear/disappointmentdev.toreaction spectrum: cynicism/fear/disappointment
- 2026-06-1699/100 entries self-reporteddigitalapplied.com99/100 entries self-reported; scaffold moves scores 10–20 pts
- 2026category taxonomyearlyterms.comcategory taxonomy; 2025-05-19 triple launch; codex 3m+ wau feb 2026
- 2025-08-08wu x-post acknowledgment quoteseconomic timeswu's x acknowledgment; mercor/anysphere comparisons
- 2025-07~$250m price / ~$100m cash → ~$150m ev arithmeticethanding.substack.com~$250m price / ~$100m cash → ~$150m ev arithmetic
- 2025-07anthropomorphic-branding critiquefast companyanthropomorphic-branding critique; perplexity-ceo praise quote
- 2024-03demo analysisfikisipi.comdemo analysis; "canceled by a significant portion of the developer community"
- 2026-06-16$60b all-stock anysphere dealforbes$60b all-stock anysphere deal; largest venture-backed acquisition
- 2024-03-31investor-frenzy framingfortuneinvestor-frenzy framing
- 2025-07-14hybrid workforcefortune"hybrid workforce"; salary contrast $115–180k
- 2025-01-24bungling the vast majority of tasksfuturism"bungling the vast majority of tasks"
- 2024-12-11ga coveragegadgets360.comga coverage; notes 8-month delay
- 2024-04verbatim iob company lied three-count quotegist.github.comverbatim iob "company lied" three-count quote
- 2025-05-20jules public betablog.googlejules public beta; async cloud-vm agent
- 2024-05debunk digestgun.iodebunk digest; client-communication gap argument
- 2024-12angellist 14k dashboards 5.2xheadsupai.ioangellist 14k dashboards 5.2x; nubank details
- 2024-04302 pts/43 commentshacker news302 pts/43 comments; mike_hearn's canonical summary
- 2024-03-12launch threadhacker newslaunch thread; denial/fear/economics debate
- 2025-08extreme performance cultureinc."extreme performance culture"; "live where we work"
- 2024-04internet of bugs frame-by-frame debunk of upwork demoyoutubeinternet of bugs frame-by-frame debunk of upwork demo
- 2024-03-12launch summary incl. swe-bench framing detailitdoeswhatnow.comlaunch summary incl. swe-bench framing detail
- 2025-02-04expectations gap coverageitpro.comexpectations gap coverage
- 2026-07wang: windsurf ceo jul25–jun26 → president, new enterprise at cognitionlinkedinwang: windsurf ceo jul'25–jun'26 → president, new enterprise at cognition
- 2026wang interview: reorgs every 2–3 monthsyoutubewang interview: reorgs every 2–3 months; "windsurf… maybe five or six people now"
- 2024-03dev reactionleaddev.comdev reaction; collison/atallah endorsements
- 2026-08closed aug 14marketbusinessnews.comclosed aug 14; ~$2.6b b2b annualized revenue; ~23x
- 2024-03-14human software engineers promptly spiraled in the repliesmorningbrew.com"human software engineers promptly spiraled in the replies"
- 2024-03-13consumer launch coveragendtv.comconsumer launch coverage
- 2024-04-18debunk digestnextbigfuture.comdebunk digest; wrong-prompt/self-made-errors analysis
- 2025-07-14bricklayers to architects quotethe new york times"bricklayers to architects" quote
- 2025-05-16codex cloud se agent, codex-1/o3-derivedopenaicodex cloud se agent, codex-1/o3-derived
- 2021-08-10codex model launch (copilots engine)openaicodex model launch (copilot's engine)
- 2024-03-13open-source replication created day after launchgithubopen-source replication created day after launch; now openhands; ~85k stars
- 2025-07-16devin not popular with developers, windsurf islinkedin"devin not popular with developers, windsurf is"; 3,000-respondent survey
- 2025-07acquihire-ethics critiquepercolator.substack.comacquihire-ethics critique
- 2025-09-08round corroborationpitchbookround corroboration
- 2025-04price-collapse-as-admission readplainai.aguidetocloud.comprice-collapse-as-admission read
- 2024-12-13$500/mo as b2b junior-engineer pricing readproductgeeks.com$500/mo as b2b junior-engineer pricing read
- 2024-04six-fold revaluation coveragequartzsix-fold revaluation coverage
- 2026-06-16option structure ($60b buy / $10b collab)quartzoption structure ($60b buy / $10b collab); $29.3b series d nov 2025
- 2025scorecard: ~50% merged-code share at anthropicblog.redwoodresearch.orgscorecard: ~50% merged-code share at anthropic
- 2025-01-23first ai software engineer is bad at its jobtheregister.com"'first ai software engineer' is bad at its job"
- 2024-04-17quotes cognitions technical-preview-opening tweetscitech.whatfinger.comquotes cognition's technical-preview-opening tweet
- 2025-04-03devins adoption stalled under competitionsiliconangle.com"devin's adoption stalled" under competition
- 2026-09-08us army/navy/nasa, servicenow, infosys, goldman userssilicon republicus army/navy/nasa, servicenow, infosys, goldman users; "humans as executives" direction
- 2025-0772-hour deal narrativesloppish.com72-hour deal narrative; $250m figure
- 2025-12contamination: 3x better on verified vs fresher sets → recall not skillarxiv.orgcontamination: 3x better on verified vs fresher sets → recall not skill
- 2023-10swe-bench benchmark (princeton et al.)arxiv.orgswe-bench benchmark (princeton et al.)
- 2024-10swe-bench+ audit: 32.67% solution leakagearxiv.orgswe-bench+ audit: 32.67% solution leakage; 31.08% weak tests
- 2024-08human-validated 500-issue subsetopenaihuman-validated 500-issue subset
- 2025-09-08arr $1m(sep24)→$73m(jun25)techcruncharr $1m(sep'24)→$73m(jun'25); net burn <$20m
- 2026-05-27$25b pre/$26b posttechcrunch$25b pre/$26b post; revenue $37m→$492m
- 2026-09-08run-rate $492m→~$900mtechcrunchrun-rate $492m→~$900m; the information $4–5b eoy-2026 projection; cursor ~$6b pace
- 2025-06-05kaplan: odd for us to be selling claude to openaitechcrunchkaplan: "odd for us to be selling claude to openai"
- 2025-06-03anthropic cuts claude 3.x first-party capacitytechcrunchanthropic cuts claude 3.x first-party capacity
- 2025-08-0530 laid off; ~200 buyoutstechcrunch30 laid off; ~200 buyouts; 9-month severance; 6-day/80-hr terms
- 2025-05-16codex launch coveragetechcrunchcodex launch coverage
- 2025-07-14250-person team left behindtechcrunch250-person team left behind; friday-call→monday-signing; $100m arr april peak
- 2025-04-03eye-watering $500→$20techcrunch"eye-watering" $500→$20; acu math
- 2025-05-15windsurf swe-1 family launchtechcrunchwindsurf swe-1 family launch
- 2025-07-17poaching-as-normtechbrew.compoaching-as-norm; inflection/character/adept/scale pattern
- 2024-03reports of my death are greatly exaggeratedtechopedia.com"reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"
- 2025-08wu memo verbatimtimesofindia.indiatimes.comwu memo verbatim; aug 10 deadline
- 2026-09-08~53x run-ratevalueaddvc.com~53x run-rate; "one sold, one raised independently"
- 2025-09-08acquisition paid off handsomelyventurebeatacquisition "paid off handsomely"; ~$250m estimate
- 2025-07-14friends with anthropic againventurebeat"friends with anthropic again"; wang's "we lost our founders"
- 2025-07same-day exploding offer anecdotethe vergesame-day exploding offer anecdote
- 2025-01-25can cost developers more time than it savesimprovingwetware.com"can cost developers more time than it saves"
- undatedparnas: automatic programming as euphemism for higher-level languagewikipediaparnas: automatic programming as "euphemism" for higher-level language
- 2024-12-11ga coveragewinbuzzer.comga coverage
- 2024-03-30wsj: $2b talksarchive.iswsj: $2b talks; "$350m weeks ago"; "doesn't generate any meaningful revenue"
- 2026-09-09marc andreessen posta16zmarc andreessen post; "13%→90%+ of production code"; "back him for the second time"
- 2025every's ai & i: agi-is-here argument, rl discussionapple podcastsevery's ai & i: agi-is-here argument, rl discussion
- 2024-04-30founders fund sole investor in $175m roundaibusiness.comfounders fund sole investor in $175m round
- 2018-02wus 8vc venture cup problem orchestraalgorithms-live.blogspot.comwu's 8vc venture cup problem "orchestra"; bio corroboration
- 2025-04-17$240m raisedaxios$240m raised; $1.25b post summer 2024
- 2026-02neal wu departs cognition founding team for thinking machinesbusiness insiderneal wu departs cognition founding team for thinking machines
- 2025-08i live for these momentsbusiness insider"i live for these moments"; wang all-hands applause anecdote
- 2025-09-08~$400m at $10.2bbloomberg~$400m at $10.2b; investor list
- 2025-03-17~$4b round led by 8vcbloomberg~$4b round led by 8vc
- 2024-03-12ashlee vance launch featurebloombergashlee vance launch feature; corp ~2 months old; 10-person staff; $21m; founder roles; yan harvard color
- 2025-04-16openai ~$3b talks beginbloombergopenai ~$3b talks begin
- 2025-07-14what remains of windsurf framingbloomberg"what remains of windsurf" framing
- 2025-08john collison interviewcheekypint.substack.comjohn collison interview; "i think we have agi"; windsurf weekend
- 2025-07-14deal framingcnbcdeal framing; openai ~$3b talks context
- 2026-09-1610 ioi gold medalscognition.com"10 ioi gold medals"; "21 of initial 35 had founded a company"; team employer list
- 2026-09-16full dated post index used for timeline itemscognition.comfull dated post index used for timeline items (ga, 2.x, swe-x, partnerships, offices, acquisitions)
- 2025-06-12walden yan essaycognition.comwalden yan essay; context-engineering principles
- 2024-12-10ga at $500/mo, no seat limits, slack/ide/apicognition.comga at $500/mo, no seat limits, slack/ide/api
- 2024-03-12scott wu launch postcognition.comscott wu launch post; swe-bench 13.86% claim; "tireless, skilled teammate"; early-access waitlist
- 2025-07-22mcp server connections for devincognition.commcp server connections for devin
- 2026-04-22walden yan follow-up revising 2025 thesiscognition.comwalden yan follow-up revising 2025 thesis
- 2025-09-08scott wu: >$400m at $10.2b postcognition.comscott wu: >$400m at $10.2b post; arr $1m→$73m; <$20m lifetime burn; customer names; new hires
- 2026-09-08do it all with devin: >$2b at $48b, a16z + accelcognition.com"do it all with devin": >$2b at $48b, a16z + accel
- 2024-03-15methodology: 25% subset (570/2294), unassisted, github eval harnesscognition.commethodology: 25% subset (570/2294), unassisted, github eval harness
- 2026long q&acolossus.comlong q&a; "born in 1996"; minecraft quote; ioi teammates→founders; $445m run rate claim
- 2026-09-16ioi 2013 (52nd), ioi 2014 gold (6th)cphof.orgioi 2013 (52nd), ioi 2014 gold (6th); mit icpc
- 2025verbatim: 9-person founding team, hyperscaler, tree searchdavidsenra.comverbatim: 9-person founding team, hyperscaler, tree search; notes: aug 2023 founding, scale ai stint claim
- 2024-12-10linkedin post relaying cognitions ga announcement verbatimlinkedinlinkedin post relaying cognition's ga announcement verbatim; "16x" claim; nubank/vesta/ramp; oss contributions
- 2024release notes confirming ga terms/datedocs.devin.airelease notes confirming ga terms/date
- 2026-05-27bloomberg syndication: run-rate $492m vs $37meconomic timesbloomberg syndication: run-rate $492m vs $37m; >90% internal code by devin (wu)
- 2025-07-11exclusivity lapsedfortuneexclusivity lapsed; codeium→windsurf rename; investor list
- 2026-09-16co-founder & president stylingevent.foundryco.com"co-founder & president" styling; stanford/treehacks/fei-fei lab
- 2019scott wu on lunchclub era + a16z $4m raiseshare.transistor.fmscott wu on lunchclub era + a16z $4m raise
- 2026-09-16speaker bio: early scale ai engineergne.mplify.netspeaker bio: early scale ai engineer; mit math; ioi gold
- 2025russell kaplan podcasthgcapital.comrussell kaplan podcast; "software abundance"; doubling every ~70 days
- 2025-07notes on yans context-engineering conversationlinkedinnotes on yan's context-engineering conversation
- 2026-09-16founder bioskomo.aifounder bios; "late 2022 pivot from crypto" claim; yan/anysphere
- 2026-09-16software engineer at cognition (current)linkedinsoftware engineer at cognition (current)
- 2026-09-16president since jan 2024linkedinpresident since jan 2024; ex-scale ai dir eng/ml; aug 2026 exec-hires post (grewal, art l., palmer)
- 2026-09-16ceo since nov 2023linkedinceo since nov 2023; lunchclub cto jun 2017–jun 2022; addepar 2014-15; headcount band 300-400
- 2026-09-16co-founderlinkedinco-founder; ex-scale ai; jane street intern
- 2024-04-25$175m at $2bmaginative.com$175m at $2b; wsj detail on rejected offers
- 2024-03-12$21m series amaginative.com$21m series a; collisons/elad gil/chris re; wu "deep algorithmic problem" quote
- 2026-09-16compiled leadership biosmungomash.comcompiled leadership bios; crypto-pivot claim; yan bio details (thiel, anysphere, deepreason)
- 2025-07-11nyt on the talent raidthe new york timesnyt on the talent raid; microsoft-ip concerns
- 2024-05-09early-access user write-upppaolo.substack.comearly-access user write-up; "silas" ran early access
- 2024-04gergely orosz on the debunk + cognitions walk-backnewsletter.pragmaticengineer.comgergely orosz on the debunk + cognition's walk-back
- 2026-09-08series e $2b at $48breutersseries e $2b at $48b; a16z/accel/ff/gc/avenir
- 2025-07-14jeff wang email quotereutersjeff wang email quote; windsurf $243m raised/$1.25b prior val
- 2025-07-11google $2.4b nonexclusive license + hiresreutersgoogle $2.4b nonexclusive license + hires; no equity
- 2026-07-08verbatim origin-story post (ti-83 basic, age 9)linkedinverbatim origin-story post (ti-83 basic, age 9)
- 2026-09-16scott wus personal site — diy hardware project archivescwu.ioscott wu's personal site — diy hardware project archive
- 2026-09-08~$900m run ratesiliconangle.com~$900m run rate; 30+ firm syndicate incl. nvidia, t. rowe
- 2026-09-09customers: us army/navy, nasa, servicenow, infosys, goldmansilicon republiccustomers: us army/navy, nasa, servicenow, infosys, goldman; $492m→~$900m
- 2026-07devin writes 95% of our codesourcery.vc"devin writes 95% of our code"; $492m arr; customer names; windsurf weekend negotiation
- undatedbio details: coded at 12, mathcounts 2011, lunchclub 2017stripebio details: coded at 12, mathcounts 2011, lunchclub 2017
- 2026-09-16employment list incl. meteor, d.e. shaw, dropbox, quorasuccess.aiemployment list incl. meteor, d.e. shaw, dropbox, quora (unverified)
- 2026-09-16kaplan bio: helia→scale acquisition, tesla autopilotsiliconvalleyinvestclub.comkaplan bio: helia→scale acquisition, tesla autopilot
- 2024-05microsoft build partnershiptechzine.eumicrosoft build partnership; devin on azure
- 2026-09-09claim: 2026 compute burn could hit ~$800mtechfundingnews.comclaim: 2026 compute burn could hit ~$800m
- 2024-03-13early testers (andrew kean gao)the-decoder.comearly testers (andrew kean gao); waitlist status
- 2025-03-19participant list: founders fund, khosla, elad gil, convictiontheaiinsider.techparticipant list: founders fund, khosla, elad gil, conviction
- 2025-08original reporting on layoffs/buyoutsthe informationoriginal reporting on layoffs/buyouts
- 2026-09-16founding advisor nov 2023theorg.comfounding advisor nov 2023; ramp/google brain/facebook history
- 2026-05-27>$2.5b total raised; ~53x revenue multiplethe next web>$2.5b total raised; ~53x revenue multiple observation
- 2025-07loi/waterfall detailtimesofindia.indiatimes.comloi/waterfall detail; microsoft ip friction
- 2025-07-11wang interim ceothe vergewang interim ceo; graham moreno president; deepmind agentic coding
- 2024-04-25relays the information: $175m at $2b, founders fund led both roundsvoicebot.airelays the information: $175m at $2b, founders fund led both rounds
- 2026-09-16founding aug/nov 2023 discrepancywikipediafounding aug/nov 2023 discrepancy; 10 ioi medals; neal wu/korotkevich/andrew he; 200 employees 2026
- 2026-09-16touristwikipedia"tourist"; 4009 rating 2024-08-30; tier named for him
- 2026-09-16bio: b.1997, baton rouge, harvard, lunchclub ctowikipediabio: b.1997, baton rouge, harvard, lunchclub cto 2017-22, ioi x3 (1st 2014), code jam 3rd, forbes 30u30
- 2025-08-05verbatim we dont believe in work-life balance… memowinbuzzer.comverbatim "we don't believe in work-life balance…" memo
- 2025-05-15pre-acquisition windsurf swe-1 launch (varun mohan quote)businesswire.compre-acquisition windsurf swe-1 launch (varun mohan quote)
- 2026-09-09wsj pro confirmationthe wall street journalwsj pro confirmation; altimeter, bain participation
- 2026-09-16fan bio; jan-2023 founding claim (outlier)yespress.iofan bio; jan-2023 founding claim (outlier); 60% ex-founders stat
- 2025~15-person eng team each using ~5 devinsyoutube~15-person eng team each using ~5 devins; ~25% of prs by devin; 8 pivots; name origin
- 2024-03original demo video narrated by walden yanyoutubeoriginal demo video narrated by walden yan
AI-drafted at Ben Guo's direct request and credited to Hraness; every claim links to its cataloged source.